Fifth Wave: Up to 140,000 infections daily

Experts already emphasized that there was no question of any anomaly, because the post-holiday increase in infections was expected - due to the practical lack of restrictions, a large number of contacts and a low level of vaccination of the society, and that a scenario in which the fifth wave will start with a high number of daily infections and - above all - hospitalization. This is what is happening.

Adam Niedzielski on Monday referred to the resignation of thirteen out of seventeen members of the Medical Council . He thanked the experts who resigned on Friday, stressed that he was trying to convince them to stay in the advisory body, but also stated that at the moment another team of advisers will be appointed in a wider group - apart from doctors and experts in medical sciences, there will also be economists and sociologists. The team will be built not only with the fifth wave in mind, but also about recovering from the pandemic.

How does the minister see the fifth wave? According to three forecasts, the maximum number of cases may be, according to Niedzielski, from 60 to even 140,000 a day. It is not known whether it is confirmed or actual - because the number of tests performed is a serious limitation. Even if we assume that Poland will quickly achieve the percentage of positive tests at the level of 50-60%, at the moment the average number of tests performed daily is around 80,000. This would mean that we are able to confirm the maximum of 40-50 thousand cases (unless we significantly increase the intensity of testing). Niedzielski informed that after the increases in the number of infections in recent days - exceeding 30 percent. - another high reading can be expected on Tuesday. "It's likely we'll exceed 20,000 infections," he admitted.

The minister assured that plans are being prepared for "various scopes of combating the pandemic", but the health care system is "exposed to the risk of an enormous burden, which we have not dealt with during any of the waves so far." - We expect the peak of infections in mid-February and it will be approx. 60 thousand. infections daily. The MOCOS center predicts that at the end of January we will have 120,000. infections. The ICM center predicts a peak at the level of 100-140 thousand. in mid-February or at the beginning of March - he was calculating.

Adam Niedzielski emphasized that the government must have "new instruments" - and in his opinion it has or will have such. It is a bill prepared by MP Czesław Hoc, assuming that employers will be able to send employees for tests. The project is strongly criticized by most experts as insufficient, and in the course of work in the Health Committee it was even more weakened - but still the anti-vaccination and anti-vaccine environments. sanitary segregation is strongly opposed to him. Also, some members of the United Right do not want the so-called the Hoca Act. Niedzielski said on Monday that further processing of the project is a key element that can help fight the high risk of a large number of infections, he said. He added that he had talked about this topic with Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki and Jarosław Kaczyński on the weekend. - I have received an assurance that the act will be processed, it will be subject to the second reading and in it I hope for an effective fight against the fifth wave.