The latest Health Care Financing Monitor, presented on Tuesday, leaves no doubt: without a change in the financing system, the law's goals of 7% of GDP for health, even in the version in which the percentage of spending is counted against GDP two years ago, are unattainable.
FPP: health finances under pressure
Published May 24, 2023 08:10
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As explained by Lukasz Kozlowski, chief economist of the Federation of Polish Entrepreneurs, FPP prepares the reports because there is a lack - on the official side - of transparent and sufficient information regarding the actual level of health care financing. - The data contained in the Monitor are not our forecasts or our assessment. In the Monitor, we show straightforwardly what results from putting together various sources of information that are publicly available and whose sources are government documents.
According to the latest data, the outlook for health care financing, which takes into account the latest changes to the National Health Service's financial plan and those that have not yet taken effect and will be presented at Wednesday's Parliamentary Health Committee, is 5.07 percent of this year's GDP - less than the March Monitor predicted. According to the statutory methodology, this translates to 6.65 percent of GDP - more than the prediction of the previous edition of the report. This year's minimum, as stipulated in the law, is 6 percent of GDP.
However, Kozlowski said, already in 2024 - based on currently available macroeconomic data - about 11 billion in state budget subsidy will be needed to achieve the statutory target of 6.2 percent of GDP from 2022. As the expert said, this is due to the fact that we are starting to operate almost at full employment, the labor market will no longer grow - on the contrary, some problems are to be expected, due to the economic slowdown. Also, there will not be such an obvious premium due to high inflation, because the inflation rate was already at a record high in 2022 and contributed to a jump in GDP (nominal) growth.
Kozlowski also stressed that this year the National Health Fund will have to virtually zero out its financial reserves - due to the amendment of the Law on Physician and Dentist Professions, the transfer of PLN 5.5 billion to the covidium fund and the need to finance the cost of minimum wage increases. The payer will already enter 2024 without reserves.
