Where are we systematically heading?

Early next week, the OECD and the European Commission will present the next edition of the report evaluating national health systems, and one of the basic indicators will be the level of current spending, including public spending, on health. Dollars (or euros) against nuts that Poland will not be close to the "good" or even "average" European level can be bet today, regardless of the message of the day, which they see in the media - social, industry, mainstream - representatives of the government .

There is no 6 or 7 percent of GDP for health, there is - about 5 percent. Maybe in 2021 we managed to break this unattainable barrier thanks to the expenses related to COVID-19. Maybe in 2022 we will manage not to fall below 4.8-4.9 percent. – counting according to the international methodology, not coined somewhere between Nowogrodzka (PiS seat), Świętokrzyska (Ministry of Finance), Miodowa (Ministry of Health) and Aleje Ujazdowskie (Premier's Office).

Is health a government priority? Neither before nor now was it - experts believe quite unanimously. Also those who emphasize that in recent years many things have changed for the better. In the context of "organizing expenses", i.e. the act that concretes the level of 5 percent. GDP for health - because this is how the amendment to the act on the professions of doctors and dentists should be called, which the Senate Health Committee will deal with in a week - talking about prioritizing health sounds like a gloomy joke.

It is a joke to compare data on nominal public spending from 2015 and 2023 in a situation where annual inflation may exceed 14% in 2022 alone, and going to a random necessities store, we see that we have to pay for identical goods almost or more than twice as much. The awareness that parsley has become cheaper, which was recently reassuringly reported by one of the representatives of the ruling camp, does not change the facts: both from individual wallets and from the accounts of hospitals or clinics, the same money flows out twice as fast.

It is not a joke that the signals coming from the labor market about mass layoffs in production plants and a crash in the construction sector make us put a huge question mark on the growth rate of the health premium volume assumed for next year. A scenario is realistic in which the entire surplus that will appear in the NHF budget will be empty, inflationary money - although the government, in the tables, will still have everything correct. And the Ministry of Finance will be able to implement the subsidy to the National Health Fund for the implementation of the 7% Act. GDP for health in the round amount of PLN 0.