Sunday's draw. What's next?

Certainly, regardless of the outcome, there will be quite a few cardiac incidents. Health is not above politics, but politics, often in a very literal way, harms health. Hospital emergency departments will probably have more work on Sunday night into Monday.

And in the long term? Rafal Trzaskowski's win may bring an unblocking of the Health Ministry's legislative activity, frozen in recent months, which can be seen as both an opportunity and a threat. Certainly, however, a potential or probable presidential veto will cease to be a (dubious) excuse for postponing difficult decisions. This does not mean, of course, a breakthrough - if only in the matter of changes in hospitality. Here the big stumbling block is politics at both the highest and quite local levels. And the disagreement, after all, does not come out(out) exclusively from the Presidential Palace, but was manifested much earlier, already at the stage of agreements within the government.

That's another interesting theme, by the way: the presidential election, regardless of its final outcome, is a series of seismic shocks for the current coalition, and the polls of support for political parties conducted between the first and second rounds are not just shocks, they are tsunamis. Donald Tusk is too experienced a politician to dismiss the results with a statement: - These are just polls.

After Szymon Holownia's disastrous, even embarrassing, result, the Third Way is going down in successive polls. According to Friday's poll by the Opinia24 studio for RMF FM, the political project of Poland 2050 and PSL would not exceed the electoral threshold for an election committee (5 percent), let alone a coalition. It is true that the election would have been won by KO, clearly ahead of PiS (31.1 percent vs. 27.2 percent), but second place with 16 percent support for the Confederation and the entry of two left-wing groups into the Sejm (New Left - 5.9 percent, Razem party - 5.5 percent) would have meant, in all likelihood, the impossibility of forming a stable government, resulting in early elections. A majority for the Democrats, if there was one, would be minimal. There are also polls that even show that the PiS-Confederation bloc could count on a majority.

The latter scenario, of course, will become (even) more real if Karol Nawrocki wins - here there is no doubt that, as president, he will paralyze the government's actions, which voters will observe with growing frustration regarding its inability to fulfill its promises. Also those relating to health, if only in terms of changes in abortion law or statutory regulation of the availability of emergency contraception. Looking at it from this perspective, moreover, if it doesn't get done (assuming a scenario in which Rafał Trzaskowski wins), the topic may return in the next Diet - but the vector of change may go in a completely different direction.