President Karol Nawrocki. And what's next

The current ruling coalition thus found itself on the defensive, and one of the most frequently repeated words on Monday morning was "shock." After all, Karol Nawrocki's win puts a massive question mark, and in fact crosses out, the chances of the coalition that won the elections in the fall of 2023 to "prove" at least some of the promises made to voters then. Unless unexpected circumstances arise, the consolidation of the new majority can be expected with the simultaneous decomposition of the Democrats' coalition.

Of course, there are always alternative scenarios. Replacement of the weakest links in the government, perhaps a new prime minister - after all, it has been famously said that Donald Tusk does not plan to govern for four years. Maybe an overhaul of the coalition and the entry of new faces into the government. One of the conclusions that can be drawn from these elections is the apparent fatigue of a sizable group of voters with the existing offer (and no, it's not the PO-PiS duopoly, that one is paradoxically doing quite well, given that it is celebrating its 20th anniversary this year).

The wrestling match between the government and the president, observed December 2023, will enter a new phase, as Karol Nawrocki is a fighter walking in a completely different weight than Andrzej Duda. It will be more difficult, and one of the likely scenarios is a conveyor belt of presidential vetoes, at least on key issues and those that stir public emotions. Such, undoubtedly, include and health topics waiting to be resolved - among them, the hospital bill. Postponed, utterly pointlessly, since last November, it may not stand a chance at the moment, if PiS decides that the narrative about the threat of privatization is more profitable than a rational continuation of the changes that Mateusz Morawiecki's government planned to introduce (even if Morawiecki is claiming otherwise at the moment).

A huge problem will be finances - if only because Karol Nawrocki will certainly see to the implementation of the Medical Fund provisions and will certainly not agree to its dissolution.

Also on the table is the issue of abortion or women's reproductive rights, more broadly speaking. Rather, one can forget about statutory regulation of the availability of emergency contraception without a prescription. Even if PiS would like to maintain the "goodwill" of months ago on this issue and agree to availability for women of legal age, it is not impossible that the new president will approach the issue in an even more fundamental way than Andrzej Duda. There will be neither legalization of abortion up to the 12th week of pregnancy, nor even its decriminalization. It is not even certain that a return to the so-called "abortion compromise," a project of the Third Way clubs, would not prove too far-fetched.

There are signs that later this week Prime Minister Donald Tusk may decide to make some decisive move. For example, to address the Sejm with a confidence motion. Other decisions will require more time, but it is also true that there is not much time and it will start to run faster and faster.