More than 186 billion zlotys will flow into the National Health Service next year from health premiums, the three-year revenue forecast of the National Health Service predicts. However, it is unclear what amount the payer will ultimately have at its disposal, as the document does not specify the size of the subject subsidy from the state budget.
NFZ revenue forecast for 3 years. The size of the subsidy has not been determined
Published June 10, 2025 12:11
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This is to be completed at the stage of work on the state budget, although work on the draft financial plan of the National Health Fund is already underway (in July it must be approved by the Council of the National Health Fund and by parliamentary committees). The amount of the subject subsidy was entered in the "forecast" for 2025-2027, prepared last year, and it was PLN 18.3 billion. Exactly that much was also entered in the NFZ financial plan, a version that has passed opinion and forms the basis of the Fund's work, although it has not been approved by the Finance Minister. This year, the subject subsidy has already been increased (by PLN 4 billion) and the Health Minister informed, also in recent days, that another increase of at least PLN 12 billion will be necessary. This is because the Fund has no funds of its own to cover the cost of valuation increases, without which it is impossible to implement the increase law as of July 1.
If the amount of the subject subsidy is not included in the financial plan for 2026, it is difficult to imagine a positive opinion of the document, because the costs (prepared on the basis of estimates sent by NFZ branches to the headquarters), will very clearly exceed the planned revenues. According to the data in the Health Care Financing Monitor, the minimum level of public spending on health (the NFZ budget makes up the largest part of it, but it also includes the budget at the disposal of the Minister of Health), necessary to reach the threshold of 7% of GDP on health provided for in the law, must oscillate around 251 billion zlotys. "The three-year forecast" indicates that next year's Fund revenues will exceed PLN 193 billion - so the difference reaches almost PLN 60 billion. It is not known how much this year's subject subsidy will ultimately have to amount to - to ensure that all necessary expenses can be met - but assuming the Health Minister's estimates, it is a minimum of PLN 34 billion. For obvious reasons, next year's subsidy cannot be lower than that - with these calculations assuming the continuation of the current legal status regarding the amount of income from health premiums, the election results are unlikely to allow the implementation of plans to reduce the premium for entrepreneurs.
