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A brief analysis of the causes of the creeping demographic disaster

MedExpress Team

Ewa Biernacka

Published May 9, 2023 14:15

A brief analysis of the causes of the creeping demographic disaster - Header image
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The starting point of the Demographic Strategy 2040 adopted by the government is a statistic. "We are facing a creeping demographic catastrophe in many parts of the country, and some trends may be very difficult to curb." By 2020, Poland's population has fallen by 117,600 to 38.3 million people. A massive population decline was recorded in 14 of the 16 provinces.

"Around 2035, the number of people of working age will reach 10 million. With a simultaneous decline in the birth rate, seniors will make up about one-third of the population. The 80+ population will double. The latest demographic forecast of the Ministry of Finance, published by the Social Insurance Institution, predicts that the population in Poland will shrink by about 10 million, or a quarter, by 2080."

According to the Central Statistical Office, 305,000 children were born in Poland in 2020, the fewest since the end of World War II. Poland ranked fourth in Europe in terms of fertility rate.

Meanwhile, only 32 percent of Polish women plan to have offspring, according to the CBOS survey "Women's Procreative Attitudes."

At the conference Why don't Polish women want to get pregnant? the reasons for this trend were discussed by experts invited by the Institute for Health Communication: Prof. Jacek Holowka, philosopher and ethicist, Prof. Marta Szajnik, gynecologist, Dr. Maja Herman, psychiatrist, Dr. Jacek Tulimowski, gynecologist, obstetrician, and actress Magdalena Waligórska.

The phenomenon of low birth rate, observed in many European countries, as unfavorable, requires inhibition, and for this purpose urgent action by the governments of these countries. Analysis of the causes of the problem defined by demographers belongs to medical science, social science, philosophy and politics, and they are very complex.

Among the medical causes, infertility was listed first by experts. One in ten Polish women has endometriosis, and half of them are infertile. The quality of male semen, the second biological reason for infertility or difficulty conceiving a child, is getting lower and lower. Meanwhile, access to assisted reproductive techniques, including in vitro, is systemically lacking. "The l...

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